Archive for September 9th, 2007

September 9, 2007: 11:40 pm: bluemosesErudition

“리스 마르코스에 따르면 인도네시아에서 퍼져나가는 근본주의의 근거에는 지구화에 의해 심해진 극심한 빈부격차, 가난, 삶의 유동성, 정체성 해체, 미국을 중심으로 한 서구 제국주의의 이슬람 침략에 대한 분노, 인도네시아의 세속주의 정부가 보여준 경제부흥과 민주주의 수립의 실패 등에 기인한다고 한다. 민족주의, 사회주의, 경제개발, 세속주의, 민주주의 … 모두 그럴싸한 비전을 제시하며 인도네시아 민중들에게 잘사는 미래를 약속했지만 어느 하나도 약속을 지키지 못했다는 것이다.

이러한 역사적 현실에 대해 인도네시아의 근본주의자들은 마지막 남은 카드로 ‘이슬람’ 카드를 들고 나온 것이라 한다. 그들은 이제 이슬람 종교에 근거한, 부정부패를 물리치고 모든 ‘우마’(공동체)가 함께 나누며 사는 이슬람 이상국가, 파라다이스를 꿈꾼다 한다. 이 집단에서는 여성들을 이 파라다이스의 어머니라고 치켜세우며 파라다이스 건국을 위한 전사들을 많이 생산해 달라고 부탁한다. 여성들은 근본주의를 통해 가지게 된 파라다이스 건국의 어머니라는 정체성에 지금껏 한번도 느껴보지 못한 자부심과 삶의 큰 목적을 느끼며 헌신한다고 한다. 그들은 더 많은 전사 생산을 위해 자신들의 남편에게 둘째, 셋째 부인까지 직접 찾아다 바친다는 것이다.”

: 7:44 pm: bluemosesErudition

“In the midst of a crisis, no one knows how far an economy will drop or for how long. But capitalism, since its beginning, has been marked by crises; each time, the economy recovers, but each crisis carries its own lessons. So ten years after Asia’s crisis, it is natural to ask: what were the lessons, and has the world learned them? Could such a crisis recur? Is another crisis imminent?”

“Before the crisis, some thought risk premia for developing countries were irrationally low. These observers proved right: the crisis was marked by soaring risk premia. Today, the global surfeit of liquidity has once again resulted in comparably low risk premia and a resurgence of capital flows, despite a broad consensus that the world faces enormous risks (including the risks posed by a return of risk premia to more normal levels.)”

“But there are some big differences between then and now. Most developing countries have accumulated massive foreign currency reserves. They learned the hard way what happens to countries otherwise, as the IMF and US Treasury marched in, took away economic sovereignty and demanded policies intended to enhance repayment to Western creditors, which plunged their economies into deep recessions and depressions.”

This growth in reserves, while providing insurance to developing countries, created a new source of global volatility. Especially as the dollar lost its sacred place as a store of value under the Bush administration, rebalancing these multi-trillion dollar portfolios entails selling off dollar holdings, contributing to the dollar’s weakening.”

“Indeed, the two most important lessons of the crisis have not been absorbed. The first is that capital market liberalization – opening up developing countries’ financial markets to surges in short-term “hot” money – is dangerous. It was not an accident that the only two major developing countries to be spared a crisis were India and China. Both had resisted capital market liberalization. Yet today, both are under pressure to liberalize.”

“The second lesson is that in a highly integrated world, there is a need for a credible international financial institution to design the rules of the road in ways that enhance global stability and promote economic growth in developing countries. With the IMF so dominated by the US (it is the only country with a veto) and Europe (which, by custom, appoints its head), the Fund was long seen as representing the interests of international creditors. Its failures in the 1997 crisis further undermined its credibility, and its failure to do anything about the massive global financial imbalances that represent the main threat to global financial stability today, have underscored its limitations(출처).”